Mexico Earthquake Magnitude 7.2, April 18, 2014
Two hours ago a magnitude 7.2 earthquake struck near Galeana, Mexico. It shook both the nearest city of substantial size, Tecpan, as well as the capital of Mexico city. The latter is located on an old lake bed and is subject to amplified shaking due to the thick layer of sediments.
From the Hazard Viewer, it can be seen that the earthquake struck in an area of elevated probability:
We can draw a circle of radius 100 miles around the epicenter to compute the probability of the event (the probability calculations will next be updated tonight at midnight):
We find that a computed probability of 11.5% that a M>7 earthquake would occur within 1 year from last night at midnight, and a probability of 66.6% that it would occur within 3 years.
Using the forecast timeseries bar, we find that the probability had been increasing recently:
About OpenHazards Bloggers
Steven Ward is a Research Geophysicist at
the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UC Santa Cruz. He specializes in the quantification and simulation of
natural hazards. Read Steve's blog.
John Rundle is a Distinguished Professor of Physics
and Geology at UC Davis and
the Executive Director of the APEC Collaboration for Earthquake Simulations. He
chaired the Board of Advisors for the Southern California Earthquake Center from 1994 to 1996. Read John's blog.
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