Increase in Earthquake Probabilities in Southern California
The earthquake viewer tool can be used to plot contours of equal probability (chance of an earthquake) globally, as well as regionally in California and Japan. The global forecast is a lower resolution forecast for earthquakes having magnitudes M>6.5 within the next year from today. The regional higher resolution forecast for California is for earthquakes having magnitudes M>5 within 1 year from today.
A comparison of screenshots from September 29, 2012 and Today, October 18, 2012, shows that the contours of probability are changing. Increases in probablity are seen for areas centered on the Elsinore fault south of Los Angeles, and for the San Andreas fault north of the Salton Sea. Other changes can be seen in other areas of the map. The red boxes highlight these changes.
The figure below is the same as the figure above right for 10/18/2012 but with the California fault system superposed:
About OpenHazards Bloggers
Steven Ward is a Research Geophysicist at
the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UC Santa Cruz. He specializes in the quantification and simulation of
natural hazards. Read Steve's blog.
John Rundle is a Distinguished Professor of Physics
and Geology at UC Davis and
the Executive Director of the APEC Collaboration for Earthquake Simulations. He
chaired the Board of Advisors for the Southern California Earthquake Center from 1994 to 1996. Read John's blog.
Comments
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