How does OpenHazards validate its forecasts?
Open Hazards validates its forecasts using the same types of statistical testing that are used in the weather/climate/financial forecasting communities. These tests are used to determine resolution, the ability of a forecast to discriminate between alternative outcomes; reliability, whether the predicted frequency of events matches the observed frequency of events; and sharpness, whether events tend to occur at high forecast probabilities, and no events tend to occur at low forecast probabilities, in contrast to methods in which events tend to occur near average values of probability.
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