What is forecasting (in contrast to prediction)?
While the dictionary defines forecasting to be a synonym for prediction, we consider forecasting to be a specification of the odds, or probability, of an earthquake occurring at a given location, during a given time window, within a given magnitude range. By contrast, we consider a prediction to be the specification that an earthquake either will, or will not, occur at a given location, during a given time window, within a given magnitude range. A forecast is therefore a statement of probability, whereas a prediction is a binary statement. An individual forecast can never be validated by a single observation, but a forecast method can be validated by many observations. By contrast, an individual prediction can be validated by a single observation.
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