What is forecasting (in contrast to prediction)?
While the dictionary defines forecasting to be a synonym for prediction, we consider forecasting to be a specification of the odds, or probability, of an earthquake occurring at a given location, during a given time window, within a given magnitude range. By contrast, we consider a prediction to be the specification that an earthquake either will, or will not, occur at a given location, during a given time window, within a given magnitude range. A forecast is therefore a statement of probability, whereas a prediction is a binary statement. An individual forecast can never be validated by a single observation, but a forecast method can be validated by many observations. By contrast, an individual prediction can be validated by a single observation.
To see locations of current major earthquakes, go the Hazards Viewer and click on one of the Earth globes on the right hand side.
Poll
1. | Tokyo | 68 |
2. | Los Angeles | 25 |
3. | Manila | 18 |
4. | Bandung | 17 |
5. | Santiago | 16 |
6. | Nagoya | 9.4 |
7. | Osaka | 9.4 |
8. | Jakarta | 9 |
9. | Lima | 8 |
10. | Chengdu | 7.5 |