Guatemala Earthquake M7.4 11/7/2012
Today at 16:35:50 GMT, an earthquake with magnitude M7.4 occurred offshore of Guatemala. It was felt as far away as Mexico City. In the figure below, I have used the earthquake viewer to snap some screenshots of the global forecast contours for an M>6.5 earthquake within the next year. The contours are pre-earthquake contours, since they were updated at midnight last night. We will see how the probabilty contours evolve over the next few days.
Update #1 on 11/8/2012: Tragically, it has been reported that more than 48 persons perished in this event. It is likely that more will be reported in the near future.
Update #2 on 11/8/2012 at 16:37:00 GMT: The events currently in the ANSS catalog on which the forecast is based are current only through 10/24/2012. Changes in forecast contours will only be evident after the current mainshock and aftershocks (shown below resulting from the real-time feed) are included in the ANSS catalog.
About OpenHazards Bloggers
Steven Ward is a Research Geophysicist at the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UC Santa Cruz. He specializes in the quantification and simulation of natural hazards. Read Steve's blog.
John Rundle is a Distinguished Professor of Physics and Geology at UC Davis and the Executive Director of the APEC Collaboration for Earthquake Simulations. He chaired the Board of Advisors for the Southern California Earthquake Center from 1994 to 1996. Read John's blog.