Southern California Four Cities Forecast, November 1, 2011

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Here we give an earthquake forecast for the four southern California cities of Los Angeles, Riverside, Palm Springs and San Diego.  These forecasts are for large earthquakes having magnitudes M>6 within a 100 mile radius of those cities, occurring within the next 12 months. A previous post gave earthquake forecasts for the 4 northern California cities of San Francisco, Berkeley, San Jose and Sacramento. 

The blue dots and vertical blue lines indicate similar M>6 earthquakes that occurred previously.  The plots show earthquake probabilities (chance of an earthquake in %) as a function of time in years.  The large X at the right hand end indicates the chance of such an earthquake today.  It can be seen that the largest current probability is for Palm Springs, nearly 45%.  Riverside and San Diego have probabilities near 40%, while Los Angeles has a smaller probability, about 25%.

Risk Alert