Four Cities Forecast: Italy (May 9, 2011)

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Recent news articles have told the story of an internet rumor popular in Italy at the moment, discussing the possibility of a major earthquake in Rome, Italy, proposed to occur on May 11, 2011 (see for example:  In light of the M6.3 L'Aquila earthquake of April 6, 2009, it seems timely to examine the chance of a major earthquake strking one of four principal cities in Italy.

We therefore present a four cities forecast for Italy.  These forecasts are for M>6 earthquakes, within 30 months (2.5 years), and within 200 Km of the four cities of Rome, Naples, Milan, and Venice.  As can be seen, the highest probability is for the cities of Milan and Venice, and the lowest probabilities are for Rome and Naples.

The data in tabular form are:


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