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Today's M7.5 Afghanistan Earthquake, October 26, 2015

The earthquake that struck Afghanistan today occurred in region of very high probability that has been present for well over a year.  A screenshot from the hazard viewer is below showing the main shock as a red teardrop.  The forecast was computed at 8:03 pm (Pacific Time) on Sunday, October 25, 2015.  The earthquake occurred about 6 hours later, at Monday October 26, 2015 at 02:09:32 Pacific Time. Information about the earthquake can be found here.

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The LA Story - October 24, 2015

If you live in Los Angeles, and you don't live in a cave, you've probably seen this story about an earthquake forecast for the Los Angeles area.  The controversial piece of the story is basically that the 99.9% probability computed by the methods on this web site is higher than the quoted probability of 85% probability computed by the US Geological Survey.  Both of these probabilities are for a circular region of radius 100 km around La Habra, California, over the time period of 3 years from about June 2

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Earthquakes on the Newport Inglewood Fault

During the past few months, beginning with a magnitude 3.3 event on April 13, 2015, there have been 6 M>3 earthquakes on or near the Newport-Inglewood fault in the West Los Angeles area.  The latest of these events occurred on saturday June 6 just prior to 10 pm.  All of the events are relatively shallow, between 6 - 15 km.  It is noteworthy that this fault was responsible for the M6.4 Long Beach earthquakes on March 11, 1933. 

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Using the Hazard Viewer to Compute a Forecast

The Nepal earthquake struck in a region with poorly constructed buildings, susceptible to major damage and destruction.  Here I show an illustration of how to use the Hazards Viewer to obtain a forecast.

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Major Earthquake in Nepal, April 25, 2015 Magnitude 7.8

Much damage and destruction in Kathmandu and elsewhere, together with major loss of life.  More will be posted as time goes on.  Good pre-event forecast is difficult due to the poor station coverage in that area:

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Cyclone Pam devastates Vanuatu

And speaking disasters, Tropical Cyclone Pam has devastated the country of Vanuatu.  Details here.  Image courtesy of NASA.

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At the UN Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction

First day of the meeting today. Leaving the hotel this morning was interesting.  There are some 30 heads of state attending the conference, along with 100 ministerial delegations.  One of the heads of state is staying at our hotel, and bodyguards are in evidence. Just leaving the hotel this morning in a taxi was challenging, since embassy vehicles and other official cars choked the drive in front of the hotel.

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United Nations Decadal Symposium on Disaster Risk Reduction

Well, its finally almost here - the United Nations third decadal conference on disaster risk reduction.  This global conference was last held on 18-22 January, 2005 in Kobe, Japan.  The upcoming third conference will be held 14-18 March 2015 in Sendai, Japan.  Many prominent scientists and even heads of state are expected to attend.  I am fortunate enough to be staying at the primary hotel for the meeting, and expect to be seeing quite a number of the major world players at breakfast, so to speak.  I will also be leading and participating in several of the forums and sessions as a part of t

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California Earthquake Authority Proposes New Menu of Policies

In a press release dated October 23, 2014, the California Earthquake Authority, the primary provider of earthquake insurance within the state of California, has proposed an increase in the number of new policy types.  These include deductibles of 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% and 25%.  With this substantial increase in the types of available policies, homeowners will need to assess their risk and exposure more than ever.  The  free tool

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Back to Blogging

Sorry for the hiatus.  I was teaching 2 classes last term and trying to keep up with research and other duties.  In the following weeks, I will be discussing the run-up to the decadal United Nations World conference on disasters.  Stay tuned!

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