How to Make Your Own Earthquake Forecast Anywhere on Earth

john's picture

Its really simple.  You can see earthquake probabilities for your own or any other location. Here are the steps.  We will use the Circle Selection Tool to define a circular region.

1.  Roll over the the Tools tab at the top to see the drop down menu.  Click on the words Earthquake Viewer.

2.  You will see a Google map.  Look to the left side of the map.  Under the "Earthquake Hazard" heading, locate the Circle Selection Tool.  Click on the adjacent little box to the left side.

3.  Now click on the map.  A dialog box will appear with the heading Selection Radius.  This tells you how big the circle will be.  The default is 100 km radius.  If that is acceptable, click on Enter.  If that is not acceptable, you can either enter another radius in km, or wait until the next step below.

4.  A big blue circle will appear over the map.  There are two yellow crosses, one at the center and one at the right hand edge.  

a.  You can move the blue circle around by putting the mouse arrow on the center yellow cross, holding down the left mouse, and moving the circle.  
b.  You can also change the size of the circle by putting the mouse arrow on the right yellow cross, holding down the left mouse, and moving the mouse to expand or  contract  the circle.

5.  If you leave the circle in place for a few seconds, earthquake probabilities for earthquakes occurring in the blue circle will be automatically computed and displayed in a table at the bottom left side of the map.  You will see earthquake probabilities for magnitudes M>5, M>6, M>7, M>8, and for future time intervals of 1 month, 1 year, and 3 years.  

6.  To make the blue circle go away, click on it and answer OK in the dialog box.

7.  If you wish to display earthquake probabilities as spatial contours, go to the Select Forecast bar above the Earthquake Hazard box, and click on the Select Forecast bar.  Then click on the type of forecast you want.  You can "roll time back" by picking an earlier year and month to see what the spatial contours would have looked like at earlier times.

8.  You can also use the Polygon Selection Tool rather the Circle Selection Tool, but that is a lesson for another time.

These steps are illustrated in the screenshots below.





Earthquake Forecasting, Earthquakes, Faults, Plate Tectonics, Earth Structure

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