Japan Four Cities South Forecast: April 12, 2011, Magnitude > 6

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In previous blogs, this writer has focussed on larger earthquakes, those having magnitudes M>6.7 and M>7.0  In this and the companion blog, we compute the probabilities for M>6.0 earthquakes in the "south-central" four cities of Miyazaki, Tokushima, Osaka and Nagasaki. 

Unlike the "north" four cities of Tokyo, Nagoya, Niigata and Sendai, it is likely that most M>4 earthquakes have been included in the catalog, so the probabilities appear to this writer to be reasonable.  Here is the data, presented as usual in both time-series (line chart) format and table format.

In table form:

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