Japan Four Cities South Forecast: April 12, 2011, Magnitude > 6
In previous blogs, this writer has focussed on larger earthquakes, those having magnitudes M>6.7 and M>7.0 In this and the companion blog, we compute the probabilities for M>6.0 earthquakes in the "south-central" four cities of Miyazaki, Tokushima, Osaka and Nagasaki.
Unlike the "north" four cities of Tokyo, Nagoya, Niigata and Sendai, it is likely that most M>4 earthquakes have been included in the catalog, so the probabilities appear to this writer to be reasonable. Here is the data, presented as usual in both time-series (line chart) format and table format.
In table form:
About OpenHazards Bloggers
Steven Ward is a Research Geophysicist at
the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UC Santa Cruz. He specializes in the quantification and simulation of
natural hazards. Read Steve's blog.
John Rundle is a Distinguished Professor of Physics
and Geology at UC Davis and
the Executive Director of the APEC Collaboration for Earthquake Simulations. He
chaired the Board of Advisors for the Southern California Earthquake Center from 1994 to 1996. Read John's blog.