Magnitude 7.5 Earthquake near Papua, New Guinea April 19, 2014
A strong earthquake occurred near Papua New Guinea a few hours ago on Saturday Apr 19 2014 at 06:27:59 GMT-0700 (PDT). From the Hazard Viewer we can do a simple but rapid analysis. The forecast from the Hazard Viewer was computed last night at midnight, a few hours prior to the earthquake. The earthquake locations are shown below, with the bright red event being the M7.5 mainshock:
We can draw a circle of 150 km radius around the mainshock epicenter:
The probabilities for earthquakes of various magnitudes and times in the future in the circle were computed last night at midnight:
The probability timeseries is shown below. The sudden increase in probability in the last few days is due to recent activity, and in particular the M6.6 foreshock of a day earlier:
About OpenHazards Bloggers
Steven Ward is a Research Geophysicist at
the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UC Santa Cruz. He specializes in the quantification and simulation of
natural hazards. Read Steve's blog.
John Rundle is a Distinguished Professor of Physics
and Geology at UC Davis and
the Executive Director of the APEC Collaboration for Earthquake Simulations. He
chaired the Board of Advisors for the Southern California Earthquake Center from 1994 to 1996. Read John's blog.
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