Magnitude 7.5 Earthquake near Papua, New Guinea April 19, 2014

john's picture

A strong earthquake occurred near Papua New Guinea a few hours ago on Saturday Apr 19 2014 at 06:27:59 GMT-0700 (PDT).  From the Hazard Viewer we can do a simple but rapid analysis.  The forecast from the Hazard Viewer was computed last night at midnight, a few hours prior to the earthquake.  The earthquake locations are shown below, with the bright red event being the M7.5 mainshock:

We can draw a circle of 150 km radius around the mainshock epicenter:

The probabilities for earthquakes of various magnitudes and times in the future in the circle were computed last night at midnight:

The probability timeseries is shown below.  The sudden increase in probability in the last few days is due to recent activity, and in particular the M6.6 foreshock of a day earlier:


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