Make a Simple 1-Click Forecast
Now its easier than ever to make a forecast for your location. Just go to the "Personal Earthquake Forecast" on the Tools tab, or go here. Enter the location where you want to make the forecast. Click on "Go". That's all.
You will then see a map with contours of 1-year probability for magnitudes M>6.5, and a table of numbers below. The contours are the same as on the earthquake viewer. The table has probabilities, in the range from larger than 0% (won't happen) to less than 100% (will happen), for 4 different magnitudes that may occur within the black 50-mile radius circle around the selected location.
In the rows, the probabilities have the meaning:
Row 1. Probability for an earthquake larger than magnitude 5, during the next 1 Month, 1 Year, and 3 Years.
Row 2. Probability for an earthquake larger than magnitude 6, during the next 1 Month, 1 Year, and 3 Years.
Row 3. Probability for an earthquake larger than magnitude 7, during the next 1 Month, 1 Year, and 3 Years.
Row 4. Probability for an earthquake larger than magnitude 8, during the next 1 Month, 1 Year, and 3 Years.
Figure below is a screen shot for Los Angeles, CA for today, February 13, 2013.
Keywords:
Earthquakes, Faults, Forecasting, Plate Tectonics, Earth Structure
About OpenHazards Bloggers
Steven Ward is a Research Geophysicist at
the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UC Santa Cruz. He specializes in the quantification and simulation of
natural hazards. Read Steve's blog.
John Rundle is a Distinguished Professor of Physics
and Geology at UC Davis and
the Executive Director of the APEC Collaboration for Earthquake Simulations. He
chaired the Board of Advisors for the Southern California Earthquake Center from 1994 to 1996. Read John's blog.
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