Moderate Earthquake NE of Ottawa

A moderate earthquake originally estimated as having a magnitude M=5.0, but later downgraded to 4.8 and then 4.4, has struck NE of Ottawa, Canada.  It was felt over a wide range of eastern Canada and the northeastern part of the United States.  By our calculations, it struck in a region of low probability.

Our computed probability for a M>5 earthquake, at the time it occurred, was about 1% over the next year, in a region about 150 km in radius around the epicenter (screenshot).

At the present time, there is no reason to expect that a substantially larger event could occur in the near future, inasmuch as the probability of a much more damaging M>6 event is much less than 1% over the next 1 year in that region (screenshot from earthquake vieweer).

As always, however, it is best to be prepared, and to expect aftershocks, which are typically a magnitude unit or smaller from the magnitude of the main shock.

For further updates on earthquake probabilities, you can check the personal earthquake forecast or the earthquake viewer on this web site over the next few days.