Southern California Changes April 10, 2013 (Blogging Again!)

john's picture

Sorry about the long absence.  Been working on the new Open Hazards social networking site (more about that in a later post).  Time to revisit the changes in spatial contours at various locations in the world, starting with southern California.  I'll be presenting some of this at the Seismological Society of America meeting next week in Salt Lake City.

Shown below are the changes in contours for earthquakes having magnitude M > 5, forecast for the next year from now.  A few red boxes are shown to draw the eye towards contours that have changed.  What seems to be apparent is that towards the south, the contours have thickened, while toward the north, they have thinned.  Which would lead you to expect that probabilities have increased towards the south, and decreased towards the north. 

Furthermore, if we draw a circle around Los Angeles of about 200 km radius, we see from the table at lower left that the probability of a magnitude M>6 earthquake is about 46% over the next 3 years. 

Risk Alert