Update on the M6.5 Namie, Japan Earthquake of July 12, 2014
It is interesting to compare the pre- and post- event forecast probabilities for the Namie, Japan earthquake. As readers of this blog will know, probabilities in the forecast here change when a large event occurs. For the M6.5 earthquake that occurred last saturday, probabilities for M>6 earthquakes decreased, whereas probabilities for the M>7 earthquakes increased slightly. The changes can be seen in the attached comparison screenshots.
Reports in the Japan Times indicate that there was a small (20 cm) tsunami, and that 3 persons were injured. An evacuation alert was issue for Iwate prefecture that was later rescinded.
Forecast contours for M>=6.5 earthquakes are shown here:
Table of probabilities for pre- and post-earthquake days are shown below.
Forecast timeseries for M>6 earthquakes are shown here. Note that the probability for M>6 events decreased.
And finally, forecast probabilities for M>7 events increased very slightly (not really noticiable on the charts below).
About OpenHazards Bloggers
Steven Ward is a Research Geophysicist at
the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UC Santa Cruz. He specializes in the quantification and simulation of
natural hazards. Read Steve's blog.
John Rundle is a Distinguished Professor of Physics
and Geology at UC Davis and
the Executive Director of the APEC Collaboration for Earthquake Simulations. He
chaired the Board of Advisors for the Southern California Earthquake Center from 1994 to 1996. Read John's blog.
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