Guatemala Earthquake M7.4 11/7/2012

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Today at 16:35:50 GMT, an earthquake with magnitude M7.4 occurred offshore of Guatemala.  It was felt as far away as Mexico City.  In the figure below, I have used the earthquake viewer to snap some screenshots of the global forecast contours for an M>6.5 earthquake within the next year.  The contours are pre-earthquake contours, since they were updated at midnight last night.  We will see how the probabilty contours evolve over the next few days.

Update #1 on 11/8/2012:  Tragically, it has been reported that more than 48 persons perished in this event.  It is likely that more will be reported in the near future.

Update #2 on 11/8/2012 at 16:37:00 GMT:  The events currently in the ANSS catalog on which the forecast is based are current only through 10/24/2012.  Changes in forecast contours will only be evident after the current mainshock and aftershocks (shown below resulting from the real-time feed) are included in the ANSS catalog.

Risk Alert