What is probabilistic forecasting?
Probabilistic forecasting involves the computation of a spatial probability density function together with a temporal probability, leading to a conditional probability. The latter is the probability that an earthquake of a specified magnitude will occur, conditioned on the observation that no earthquake has occurred in the recent past. An example of a forecast probability statement might be that "there is a 40% probability that an earthquake having a magnitude between 6.5 and 7.0 will occur within a 20 km radius around location X during the next 3 months."
What are the chances an earthquake could hit your favorite locations? Make a One-Step Earthquake Forecast here.
To see locations of current major earthquakes, go the Hazards Viewer and click on one of the Earth globes on the right hand side.
To see locations of current major earthquakes, go the Hazards Viewer and click on one of the Earth globes on the right hand side.
Poll
MegaCities: Top 10 Most At-Risk Cities
1. | Tokyo | 68 |
2. | Los Angeles | 25 |
3. | Manila | 18 |
4. | Bandung | 17 |
5. | Santiago | 16 |
6. | Nagoya | 9.4 |
7. | Osaka | 9.4 |
8. | Jakarta | 9 |
9. | Lima | 8 |
10. | Chengdu | 7.5 |