Another M7.7 Earthquake on the Pakistan-Iran-India Border
In the post from 4/16/2013, we discussed the M7.8 earthquake on the Pakistan-Iran-India border. In today's earthquake, it is reported that 45 persons were killed and more injured.
In the image below, I have used the hazard viewer to generate a forecast for the region. The data on which the forecast is based were accessed as of last evening, prior to the earthquake. Here I drew a 200 km radius circle around the epicenter. The forecast indicates a 42.7% chance of an event with M>6 within 3 years, and a 7.2% chance of an M>7 within 3 years. As discussed in the blog from 4/16/2013, the station coverage is poor in this region of the world, possibly leading to forecasts lacking full accuracy. That is because the forecast method depends on counting numbers of small earthquakes M>4.5, which are typically only recorded by stations in the region.
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About OpenHazards Bloggers
Steven Ward is a Research Geophysicist at
the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UC Santa Cruz. He specializes in the quantification and simulation of
natural hazards. Read Steve's blog.
John Rundle is a Distinguished Professor of Physics
and Geology at UC Davis and
the Executive Director of the APEC Collaboration for Earthquake Simulations. He
chaired the Board of Advisors for the Southern California Earthquake Center from 1994 to 1996. Read John's blog.
Comments
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