Hurricane Irene - Wind Forecast

From the statistics of all historical storm tracks and storm strengths, I have developed a method
to forecast wind exceedence probabilities given a current
storm position, velocity and maximum sustained wind.
Here is a recent forecast for Hurricane Irene. Red lines are potential tracks based on previous storm statistics and current storm parameters. By running many potential tracks, wind exceedence probabilities can be deduced.
Colors on the maps below plot the Maximum Sustained Wind at 25% probability for the next five days. Probabilistic forecasts like these can be used to evaluate quantitatively potential wind losses as the storm progresses.
From 8/29/2011 3 GMT
From 8/28/2011 21 GMT
From 8/28/2011 15 GMT
From 8/28/2011 9 GMT
From 8/28/2011 3 GMT
From 8/27/2011 21 GMT
From 8/27/2011 15 GMT
From 8/27/2011 3 GMT
From 8/26/2011 21 GMT
From 8/25/2011 21 GMT
From 8/24/2011 21 GMT
From 8/23/2011 21 GMT
Steven N. Ward Santa Cruz
About OpenHazards Bloggers
Steven Ward is a Research Geophysicist at
the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UC Santa Cruz. He specializes in the quantification and simulation of
natural hazards. Read Steve's blog.
John Rundle is a Distinguished Professor of Physics
and Geology at UC Davis and
the Executive Director of the APEC Collaboration for Earthquake Simulations. He
chaired the Board of Advisors for the Southern California Earthquake Center from 1994 to 1996. Read John's blog.
Comments
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