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Southern California Four Cities Forecast, November 1, 2011

Here we give an earthquake forecast for the four southern California cities of Los Angeles, Riverside, Palm Springs and San Diego.  These forecasts are for large earthquakes having magnitudes M>6 within a 100 mile radius of those cities, occurring within the next 12 months. A previous post gave earthquake forecasts for the 4 northern California cities of San Francisco, Berkeley, San Jose and Sacramento. 

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Calfornia-Nevada Forecast, November 1, 2011

The last major earthquake in the California-Nevada region was the April 4, 2010 El Mayor-Cucupah (Baja) earthquake.  With a magnitude M=7.2, this event did over USD$100 million in damage to the surrounding region.  Its effects are still being felt in the enhanced number of smaller earthquakes that have occurred since that date.

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Hurricane Rina - A Caribbean Birth

The vast majority of North Atlantic Tropical Storms originate in North Africa and travel generally westward across the Atlantic gaining strength to do their damaging works in North America.  A sub-class of storms, like 2011’s Rina, are American born.  These start life in the warm waters of the southwest Caribbean and usually drift straightaway to the northwest to about the latitude of Cuba (See the map). From there, these storms can veer  in any direction from west to northeast.

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Moderate Earthquakes under Berkeley, California

On October 20, 2011 two moderate earthquakes struck beneath Berkeley, California at depths of 9 to 10 km. The first of these events registered a magnitude of 4.2, with the second one a 3.8.  While small to moderate, these events were apparently felt as far away as Portland, Oregon.  

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Of Hurricanes and Hunters

My father was one of the original Hurricane Hunters.  As a young man, he had been drafted into the army near the close of World War II.  He was assigned to the Army Air Corps and decided to apply for training as meteorologist.  He recalls flying in B-17s and other aircraft as part of his assignments.

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Site Specific Hurricane Wind Forecast – Katia

I recently posted a large number of probabilistic wind forecasts for Hurricane Irene. Here are similar predictions for Hurricane Katia - Maximum Sustained Wind expected at 25% probability.



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Four Cities Forecast: California Update (August 31, 2011)

Readers of these blogs have seen a series of four cities earthquake forecasts for California, Japan, Greece, Italy and Iran among other countries.  This updated forecast represent the chance of an earthquake during the next 12 months within 150 miles of four California cities, for magnitudes 7.0 and larger. 

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Today's M5.8 Earthquake in Virginia - II

In 2008, the US Geological Survey published a map of probability of ground motion over the next 50 years.  The map was based on historic earthquakes as well as recent seismicity (smaller earthquakes).  The area hit by todays M5.8 earthquake was identified as the most likely location in that region.

The map from the USGS is below:

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Today's M5.8 Earthquake in Virginia

By now, everyone in the United States knows that significant earthquakes can happen on the east coast.  It might be prudent to recall other major earthquakes that have occurred east of the Rocky Mountains.  These included the M~7.5 earthquakes in New Madrid, Missouri during 1811-1812, the M6.5 Cape Ann earthquake of 1755 that occurred off the coast of Massachusetts, and the M7.3 earthquake the destroyed Charleston, SC on August 31, 1886.

Steve's picture

Hurricane Irene - Wind Forecast

From the statistics of all historical storm tracks and storm strengths,  I have developed a method to forecast wind exceedence probabilities given a current storm position, velocity and maximum sustained wind. 

Here is a recent forecast for Hurricane Irene.  Red lines are potential tracks based on previous storm statistics and current storm parameters. By running many potential tracks, wind exceedence probabilities can be deduced.


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